People's Democracy

UTTAR PRADESH --- II

AS it is, the Samajawadi Party (SP) is most likely to benefit from the drubbing that lies in store for the BJP in the coming assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh (UP). If the opinion polls are to be believed, the Samajwadi Party is likely to get 80 seats more than the BJP, emerging as the single largest party; the voters seem to think that SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav will make a better chief minister than Rajnath Singh. The SP was able to increase its tally in the 1998 parliamentary elections and its strong performance in the assembly byelections strengthens the opinion poll results. Its victory in the Shahjahanpur parliamentary byelection gave a severe jolt to both the BJP and the Congress.

There are many factors in UP today which would benefit the Samajwadi Party. The most important among these is the widespread discontentment and anti-establishment feeling. With its militant approach, the SP today occupies the central opposition space. It is making direct intervention on people’s issues, and agitated on those concerning the minorities or lawyers, against the ban on SIMI, and has discharged its responsibility as the principal opposition party. The formation of Lok Morcha at the central level, the election of Mulayam Singh as its convenor, the return of V P Singh to politics, the thawing of relations between V P Singh and Mulayam Singh, and many impressive Lok Morcha rallies across the state --- all these should combine to strengthen and consolidate the Samajwadi Party and the Lok Morcha. That V P Singh enjoys a solid base amongst the backward classes and minorities, is no secret and, by aligning with him, the SP has been able to consolidate and increase its base amongst these sections of the society.

The negative factors likely to help the SP are the conflicts within the BJP between Rajnath Singh, Kalraj Mishra and Om Prakash Singh. This has assumed the character of a conflict between the Thakurs, Brahmins and backwards in the caste arithmetic within the BJP.

There has been a sharp decline in the support of minorities for Ajit Singh's party due to its tie-up with the BJP, and this would also benefit the SP, besides the Congress, particularly in areas where SP candidates can give a better fight to the BJP.

If the Samajwadi Party is not able to take advantage of all these factors, that would be a reflection on the SP’s own political approach and policies. So far as UP is concerned, SP is fully self-centred. Believing that it can deal with the BJP and other contenders on its own, it sees the allying parties as its subordinates. Instead of taking them into confidence on major issues, it takes decision on its own and then asks the allies to follow suit. This is what it did on the issue of resigning from the state assembly. This can affect the SP’s attitude towards the seat adjustment and cooperation in the coming elections. The SP leadership does not seem to understand that the role of allies, howsoever small they may be, is very important in order to convert the possibility of electoral success into a reality. There is no doubt that the SP has been in forefront of opposing the BJP. But at the same time, the common man perceives it as a pro-minority party rather than a secular party. This makes a section of society critical of the party.

The third major political party is the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). It got about one fifth of votes in the past elections. It has a solid base among the Dalits; a majority of them vote for the BSP only. If the SP and BSP reach an electoral understanding, the BJP would have to face a humiliating, rather shattering, defeat. Regrettably, such an understanding does not exist. Nor are there any chances of such an alliance.

The BSP has decided to contest the elections on its own. Explaining its reason in a recent interview, BSP leader Ms Mayawati said they had very bitter experience of the alliances they had made with the BJP, the Congress and the SP in the past. Maybe this is one reason for going it alone. But the main reason for this seems to be something else. There is a strong perception that no single party would be able to secure a majority on its won. This will provide the BSP an opportunity to play its opportunistic politics, as it did in the past. The BSP leadership seems to be working on the strategy that in such a post-election scenario the BSP can grab the chief ministership as the SP and the BJP would not allow each other to form a government. The BSP hopes to reap the benefit of the current anti-BJP wave and also hopes that a large chunk of minorities would support it as Ajit Singh is now with the BJP.

On the other hand, the formation of a new party by Barkhusag and R K Chaudhary after their expulsion from the BSP has weakened the party. The Lok Janshakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan is also trying to dent the BSP base, particularly among Pasi voters, and Paswan’s activities are a cause of concern for the BSP, despite his claims to the contrary. The reservation card being played by the chief minister can also harm the BSP. The latter is not going to gain much by contesting alone; on the other hand, this can only help the BJP that has considerably weakened.

The Congress is quite weak in UP. Its performance in the previous assembly and parliamentary elections as well as in byelections was pathetic, and its vote share has been declining. The Congress needs a miracle to be able to take on the BJP, BSP and SP in the coming polls. The impressive rallies organised by the party at Meerut and Lucknow, particularly the one at Meerut, has of course enthused the Congress leaders. But it remains to be seen how this translates into electoral performance. Credit for the big participation of the people in the Meerut rally goes solely to Ram Avtar Bhadana who, having established himself a respected and credible Gujjar leader, has added to the BJP’s discomfort. The BJP expects to perform better in western UP on the basis of its traditional base, coupled with support from the Gujjar and Jat castes. That was why it won Ajit Singh over after acceding to his wishes. Then, attempts were made to project Hukam Singh as Gujjar leader. But the organisation of a successful rally by Bhadana signals a failure of this strategy of the BJP.

The Congress would have to contest the elections on its own as it cannot align with the BJP; nor are the SP or BSP ready to have any alliance with it. The Congress is trying to make development an election issue. But this may not help it as the earlier Congress governments had also contributed to the mess that the state finds itself in today.

The Lok Dal led by Ajit Singh, known as Younger Choudhary, also has some base in UP. This party has a solid caste base among the Jat voters. The latter had deserted him for some time, so much so that he himself had to face a defeat, but they came back to support him since the 1998 parliamentary elections. These Jat voters are concentrated in some districts in western UP, where their role is decisive for the poll outcome. But Ajit Singh has himself become a synonym of political opportunism. Once he had joined the Congress and has now aligned with the BJP to be adorned as the union agriculture minister. According to Ajit Singh, it was his political compulsion to align with the BJP as his party had been isolated in UP politics. He also hopes that this alliance would help him to achieve his goal of a ‘Harit Pradesh,’ a new state where he hopes to become the chief minister. Ajit Singh’s election slogan is the demand for the formation of a ‘Harit Pradesh’ and his electoral success would depend on the extent to which the voters associate with this demand. But even if the demand generates a mass movement in western UP, Ajit Singh may not be its sole beneficiary. The Congress is also demanding a new state in its own way, and the Haryana chief minister, Om Prakesh Chautala, has demanded creation of a Kisan Pradesh in his rallies in western UP. Chautala’s intervention in western UP is a big headache and a challenge for Ajit Singh. If Chautala’s party contests elections, their candidates would eat into Ajit Singh’s votes only.

The Jat-Muslim unity that used to be the bedrock of Ajit Singh's electoral success, does not exist any longer. The Muslims have moved away from him due to his alliance with the BJP. There are already signs of tension in his party’s relations with the BJP and a massive tug-of-war is going on between the two. The Lok Dal wants to contest a large number of seats so that if the alliance comes to power and a new state is really formed, it should have a majority in the new state’s assembly. This is too big a demand for the BJP to accede, as it may mar its own future.

Apna Dal is the political organisation of the Kurmi caste who have a sizeable presence in some parts of eastern UP, just as the Jats have in western UP. If this party wins some seats, it could become crucial for government formation, and this is why this party is contesting elections all alone. The Rashtriya Kranti Dal of Kalyan Singh would only mar the chances of BJP in some parts of the state by weaning away the Lodh voters, but it may itself not be able to make substantial gains.

The failure and ineptness of the BJP government is going to be a major issue for the people in the polls. The common man is thoroughly disillusioned with the character and performance of the state and central governments, both led by the BJP. He feels cheated as the criminals terrify him, corruption is crushing him, and he is yet to be delivered freedom from fear as the BJP had promised him five years ago. Contrary to the BJP’s claims that "it is a party with a difference and its government would be different," the common perception is that its government has turned out to be worse than even the previous Congress governments. If Advani says that the BJP is being seen as "better Congress," he is both wrong and right. Right because he is forced to admit, even though obliquely, that the BJP is no different from other bourgeois-landlord parties, and wrong because the BJP is not being seen as a "better Congress" but even worse than the decaying Congress. If a report card of performance were to be made, the sum total of marks given to the BJP would be a big zero and it would be declared fail.

The BJP realises that if the coming election is contested on the issue of performance and achievements, its defeat is a foregone conclusion. It has, therefore, decided to incite the people’s feelings in order to achieve electoral success. The BJP’s recent national executive meeting decided to use what has been proved to be its pseudo-nationalism, but the bankruptcy of this card is already well known. It would use the POTO, anti-terrorist war and Vajpayee's image as its poll planks and thus try to polarise the electorate along communal lines.

To counter the BJP’s efforts to divert the people’s attention, Samajwadi Party and Mulayam Singh have decided to highlight the basic problems of the people of UP and the BJP government’s inability to solve them. This is symbolic of their political maturity and farsightedness as it would help in foiling the attempts to divert the people’s attention from their basic issues and thus help to sustain and consolidate the current anti-establishment wave.

The formation of a new state through another division of UP may become an election issue in western UP. Ajit Singh with his slogan of a "Harit Pradesh," the Congress with its call of an "Indraprastha Pradesh" and Indian National Lok Dal of O P Chautala with its slogan of a "Kisan Pradesh" would all try to woo the electorate in the region.

The BSP has contested all previous elections on the slogan of destruction of the Manuwadi system and on the plank of social justice. The coming elections would be no exception. This slogan has paid dividends to the BSP by helping to rally the Dalits behind it. The BJP has tried to hijack this plank by offering reservation within reservation, and its attempts have not been completely futile.

Yet, whatever be the issues in the coming elections, one question is definitely going to haunt the voter on the polling day --- is it worthwhile to give this government a second chance? And the only reply to this will be: Once bitten, twice shy. The countdown for the fall of the state and central BJP governments has already started.