People's Democracy

NOW BSP-BJP government has been sworn in UP with Mayawati as CM. This is the third time when BJP and BSP have come together to assume power in the state. And, on all the previous occasions, the alliance had not been based on any principles or programme. Though this time speculation was rife that the government would be formed on basis of a common minimum programme - but nothing of the sort happened and both were determined to keep Samajwadi Party out of power and reap the benefits of power. A give and take deal was thus hammered out.

BJP was in power before the state went to elections and Rajnath Singh was the last chief minister. He was fully aware that despite adopting all types of dubious means, BJP could not secure majority to be able to form government on its own. He considered himself to be adept in the art of manipulation and breaking other parties, so he was confident that BJP would be able to win just enough number of seats, so that he could target and break other parties to come back to power.

Samajwadi Party, the other major contender for power, was victim of overconfidence. Even before the elections, it had started to believe that it was surely going to sweep to power and elections were a mere formality. This gave rise to mistakes in its electoral strategy and as a result SP fell short of the majority by 57 seats.

BSP was the third major contender for power. But, BSP leadership had realised that it was not going to secure complete majority. Its hopes of being able to form a government were based on expectations of hung assembly, where no government could be formed without its support. In such a situation, it could force its alliance partner to accept its leadership or go in for fresh elections. So, its leadership realised that in order to strengthen its position, it should increase its tally in the Assembly. It thus adopted a flexible strategy and coined the slogan of ' sarvjan' instead of ' bahujan' and that this paid off is evident as it won 98 seats.

The final party position in the assembly dashed all hopes of BJP forming its government. It could form the government only by hijacking the entire BSP legislature party. Turning necessity into a virtue, BJP labeled its helplessness as political morality and declared that it would sit in the opposition, though still harbouring a feeble hope of coming to power. This explains why Rajnath Singh used to mockingly taunt the secular parties to try and form the government. However, he did not shy away from proclaiming that if situation so demanded BJP would not hesitate to discharge its responsibility to form the government. This was based on the realisation that it was imperative for a government to be formed in some way or the other and BSP being a part of that dispensation. Having been elected after spending huge sums of money, BSP MLAs in particular did not want fresh elections. Also, there was a strong possibility of a section of the of the party MLAs could desert the party to join SP in the event of it not being able to form the government. Mayawati was determined to not let this happen as she could not digest a SP government in UP. These circumstances had forced Mayawati to accept a BJP led government in UP and make up for the loss by Ministerial berths at the centre and post of president for Kanshi Ram. But before this could happen, events handed over the initiative to the BSP leadership. Mulayam Singh staked claim to form the government. As no party had a clear mandate, the governor asserted that he had the discretion to accept or not to accept the claim.

Governor, Vishnu Kant Shatri had two alternatives. First, to invite SP to form the government by following the spirit of the constitution, Supreme court verdict in the Bommai case and recommendations of the Sarkaria Commission. By doing this, he would have strengthened the democratic traditions and enhanced the prestige of his office, but he decided not to do so. He chose the other alternative, showing his commitment to BJP and Sangh Parivar over the constitution and democratic traditions. He emphasied that SP leadership had failed in providing a list of MLAs to establish that it had the majority. He did not even bother to consider the Supreme Court ruling that majority is to be proved on the floor of the House and not in Raj Bhavan. As SP could not muster the requisite numbers and no other party staked its claim to form the government, the governor recommended imposition of the president 's rule in the state. Both the central government and the governor knew that it could not last for more than two months as it would not be ratified by the Rajya Sabha. But, BJP and BSP needed more time to come to an agreement.

Congress should have made a formal announcement of its support to SP in order to strengthen its claim and generate possibilities of government formation. The governor fixed a time frame for the declaration of the Congress support to SP, however the Congress did not clearly declare its support to put the ball in SP's court by saying that first it should muster enough numbers, where its support to could help it to form the government. Congress leadership knew that this could not happen and finally did not support SP.

A section within the Congress was not able to digest this stand. Pramod Tiwari, leader of Congress legislature party, was in favour of making a clear announcement of support to SP. He, even went to the extent of saying that the people of the state would not spare those who create impediments in way of forming a secular government. But his sane voice went unheeded.

Congress clearly neglected the national interest of keeping the communal forces out of power. On the contrary, it chose to settle scores with SP. Then, there is a lobby of Congress leaders like Salman Khurshid who harbour personal animosity towards Mulayam.

However, as the governor himself had accepted, that he would have been under great moral pressure if Congress would have declared its support to SP. What he did not say was that, he would not have bowed to this on account of his commitment to Sangh Parivar.

The governor provided enough time to BJP and BSP to arrive at an agreement by rejecting the SP claim and recommending president's rule. The negotiations between the two were complex and went through many ups and downs.

The state BJP leadership consisting of Kalraj Mishra and Rajnath Singh were not in favour of an alliance with BJP and because of this the Central leadership also, did not show any special interest. In the initial stages , BSP was desperate for an agreement. As time went by, BSP leadership showed anxiety and frustration. In order to placate the BJP, it suppported the central government from Pota to Gujarat, but even this did not pay off. So, BSP directly established contact with Vajpayee. If the media reports are to be believed, BSP was so desperate that it asked Vajpayee to intervene on its behalf and was even ready to accept a BJP chief minister. On the other hand, badly cornered over the Gujarat communal carnage, BJP Central leadership saw a broad alliance with BSP as a beneficial deal and then the negotiations for an alliance gained momentum .

BJP had an upper hand in the first round. According to this, Mayawati was to be CM but there had to be a Deputy CM from BJP to keep a check on her. BJP would get the Speaker and there was to be a Coordination Committee on the lines of NDA at the centre based on a common minimum programme.

But before this could be finalised, the politics of the centre took a delicate turn. The anti- government attitude of TDP and some other allies turned the beneficial alliance with the BSP into a political necessity. BSP was quick to seize advantage and Kanshi Ram announced in a Press conference that there would be no Deputy CM and dismissed other BJP demands. The BJP state leadership reacted sharply but turned mellow before its Central leadership.

The agreement arrived at after the last round of negotiations was (i) a coalition government led by Mayawati without a Deputy CM, (ii) small ministry with 50-60 ministers and proportional representation to the two parties (iii) BJP to retain the post of speaker and ( iv) a cabinet committee in place of coordination committee to decide on policy issues.

While allying with BJP, BSP was clear that BJP allies were not its problem. It did not take into account that 14 RLD MLAs would play a crucial role in the formation of the governemnt. Ajit Singh was aware of this and he did not hand over the letter of support till Mayawati spoke to him directly and offered sops for his support. RLD was to have five ministers and a place in the cabinet committee.

So, Mayawati took the oath of office on the support of anti-dalit and anti minority Manuvadi BJP and its prime minister Vajpayee. The important question now, is who has lost and who has gained.

On the surface, it seems that the BSP has gained. It now controls the levers of power and has managed to stave off any kind of pressure. But, it is paying for this by its sharply declining base amongst the minorities. The BSP MLAs may cling on to the party for power but the minorities who voted for BSP feel cheated. A section of Dalits are also not happy at the alliance with a party which till recently, was dubbed as Manuvadi. This frustration and discontentment against the leadership is bound to aggravate as high caste vs dalit and jat vs jatav conflicts intensify in the rural areas. And BSP would not be able to take any steps to control them.

So far as BJP is concerned, a section of its leadership comprising Kalraj Mishra and Rajnath Singh are not happy with alliance. They were of the opinion that it is better to sit in the opposition than be a junior partner. After taking the moral high ground of sitting in opposition, BJP today stands exposed and its image dented.

But, this negative fallout has no meaning for BJP, when weighed against the benefits of allying with BSP. First of all, BSP helped BJP to tide over the crisis in parliament over the Gujarat issue. Secondly it has strengthened BJP for the coming presidential elections. Third, at a time when, BJP was rapidly losing its support base, BJP hopes to make unprecedented gains by contesting elections with BSP. So, RSS ratified this agreement and directed the state leadership that this should be a long term agreement.