People's Democracy

Drought and Deaf Ears of BJP Govt

K Varadha Rajan

THIS year’s drought is the worst in last thirty years. It is much worse than drought in 1972, 1979 or 1987. According to the government, in 1972-73, foodgrains production fell by as much as 7.8 per cent, the agriculture sector as a whole contracted ( -5.7 per cent ) and over all GDP growth turned negative (–0.3 per cent). The 1979 drought was a disaster. In 1979-80 foodgrains output plunged by 17 per cent, agriculture contracted by 13.7 per cent, inflation shot up to 17 per cent, the manufacturing sector witnessed a 3.4 per cent fall in value added and GDP growth in 1979-80 was a negative 5.2 per cent. This year’s drought is much more severe than these two earlier droughts. More than 12 states are adversely affected partially or fullly. Moreover this year some parts of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are facing drought for the fourth or fifth consecutive year.

Much of the crops has been damaged. The worst affected is bajra, which is the main crop in Rajasthan and is also grown in part of Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and UP. Maize, sugarcane, paddy, ragi are all affected. Course cereals which are the poor man’s staple food are the worst affected. The position is going to be further worsened in coming days. 65 per cent of the population which continues to depend on agriculture, will soon face tremendous hardships.

The peasants and agricultural workers are already in deep trouble due to the anti-poor policies of the central and many state governments. Due to conditionalities of the WTO and opening up of the market to multinationals the price crash in last ten years has already forced poor farmers to sell their lands at distressed prices. Investment in agriculture collapsed in the 1990s and the average rate of increase in foodgrains output has been less than the average rate of population growth. The last seven years of the 1990s registered a mere 0.67 per cent per annum growth of rural employment which has been the lowest since 1947. Usurious rural credit, failure of crops, and crash in prices all due to the central BJP-led government’s anti poor-anti peasant policies have already lead to suicides and kidney selling by poor farmers all over India.

In this grim situation, the 2002 drought marks a moment of reckoning. According to the latest estimates, the area sown with paddy till early August was 15.9 million as against the normal Kharif sowing of 23.4 million ha. In respect of course cereals, the area is 14 million ha against the usual 20 million ha. Oilseeds cultivation in states like MP, AP and Rajasthan, paddy in Tamilnadu and southern states and sugarcane in many states is very much damaged. This is leading to widespread loss of farm incomes.

The poor, the landless labourer, the tribal people, dalits, women and children are going to be the worst affected. For agricultural workers the period from August to October is critical. This section of rural population is the worst affected and finds survival difficult on account of drought. Many owners of livestocks are already abandoning the cattle in jungle since there are no buyers. There is already five times increase in fodder prices in some parts of Rajasthan and MP. According to M S Swaminathan, the affected in this country would include cattle because livestocks and livelihood are very closely related. According to him, over 70 per cent of the farmers who own only about 20 per cent of the land, own 75 per cent of the animals. So the relief works should cater to both humans and livestocks.

The drinking water shortage has become so acute that already in many places, people get drinking water once in three or four days. The work pressure on women in rural households is quite high. The time and energy they spend in fetching water, firewood, and fodder has increased. Rural workers in a large number have already started migrating which is going to affect not only their livelihoods, their health and children’s education. The past experience is that during droughts drop out rate from schools increases significantly.

Considering this grave situation, there is an urgent need to provide work and income to the rural poor. Estimates that have so far been placed before the central government by various state governments put the requirement at Rs 17,000 crore. In the coming days the requirement may further increase. Given the financial constraints of the states, they cannot be expected to allocate the funds needed. But with 65 million tonnes of rice and wheat in the government stocks, the centre can meet the entire obligation through the free grant of foodgrains from its bulging stocks.

But the focus of the government is currently elsewhere. The government at the centre does not seem to be interested in proper relief works. The government, which is tolerating unpaid debts amounting to Rs 1,00,000 crore of a handful of business houses and has given recently direct tax concessions of Rs 600 crore mostly to the upper middle class is asking the state governments having no resources to share 50 per cent of the drought relief expenditures.

Due to this casual attitude of the central government, public outrage in various parts of the country is already visible. The All India Kisan Sabha and All India Agricultural Workers Union have thus organised Road Roko, Rail Roko and gherao of foodgrains godowns at various places between August 17 and September 1, the Kisan Day. Various other political parties have also given a call for drought relief struggles in many states.

Given the experience of the past, this wide and united movement of the rural poor only can make the "deaf ears" of the central government hear.