UTTAR PRADESH

 Tough Situation Awaits Mulayam Govt

 Harkishan Singh Surjeet

BY the time this issue reaches our readers, Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav must have faced the Uttar Pradesh state assembly as the new chief minister, and there is every possibility that he would win the vote of confidence. He has got this assignment after the ignominious exit of Ms Mayawati-led BSP-BJP government from the seat of power in Lucknow.

It is now a part of history how Ms Mayawati came to occupy the chief minister’s post some two months after the UP assembly polls in February 2002. Even though the Samajwadi Party (SP) had emerged as the biggest party in new assembly, it was not invited to form a government. Instead, misusing the office of the governor, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ensured that the assembly was kept in animated suspension, and finally it struck an opportunist deal with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) just as it had done in early 1997. The reason was clear: the 2002 elections had relegated the BJP to a poor third in the assembly and it was in no position to come to power on its own. In such a situation, even though the BJP had vehemently opposed the BSP in the elections and earlier, it made a common cause with the BSP, as both of them were dead against the SP and its leader and wanted to somehow keep it away from power. This was how the BJP sneaked into power through a most dubious method; it is another thing that it perforce played only second fiddle to Ms Mayawati who continued to rule the state in her characteristically arrogant and autocratic style.

To any perceptive political observer, the alliance was doomed from Day One; the only guess to hazard was as to when it would have to beat an exit. On its part, the BJP wanted the support of BSP MPs in Lok Sabha for the Vajpayee-led union government; another equally important consideration was that it wanted to face the Lok Sabha polls next year in some sort of alliance or understanding with the BSP. For, the BJP was not sure that it could make any significant gain in the Lok Sabha polls in UP on its own. Its Lok Sabha seat tally from the state had already come down in 1999 compared to 1998. On her part, Ms Mayawati was well aware of the BJP’s weakness and mortal fear, and tried to take full advantage of the situation, even though she had to yield some ground on vital points. The dilution of the chargesheet against L K Advani, M M Joshi and some others in Babri demolition case was an instance in point. 

BJP’S WEAKNESS COMES TO FORE

NOW the question is: if Ms Mayawati was apparently in full control of the situation, what prompted her to approach the governor and ask him to dissolve the assembly? Various guesses have been made about it. But what appears most plausible is that some ten independent MLAs were in a mood to withdraw support from the government on the eve of the scheduled assembly session. But if that had taken place, it could have brought the BSP-BJP government to just a razor-thin majority, with the possibility that the regime could then have collapsed any moment. It was in such a situation that the chief minister called a meeting of the cabinet and the meeting resolved to recommend the dissolution of the assembly. Whatever the BJP may say today, it cannot obliterate the fact that its ministers also participated in the said cabinet meeting, and were party to the decision.  

But this was the point when the BJP seems to have developed cold feet. To its chagrin, it found that its legislators, like those of several other parties, were not prepared to face another election so soon. This lends credence to the news that some one third of the BJP MLAs were preparing to walk over to the other side. BJP leader Lalji Tandon then hurried to the governor, the BJP’s own man in Raj Bhavan, to inform him that the party had withdrawn support from the Mayawati government. This very development was later presented in a twisted way, with the governor saying that since he had received Tandon’s word earlier, he was not bound to accept the recommendation of the chief minister who had already come into a minority. The fact that the BJP ministers were party to the cabinet decision was conveniently forgotten.

This brings to the fore the weakness of the BJP in the state. By all appearance, the party toyed with two ideas --- whether to get president’s rule imposed in the state and keep the assembly in animated suspension or to get the assembly dissolved outright. That the BJP could have formed a government led by it, was simply out of question. Given the numerical position of various parties in the assembly, that could have been possible only if the whole BSP assembly group or 75 to 80 per cent of the SP assembly group had come to its side. But both these things were unimaginable. As even the imposition of president’s rule could not have much changed the situation two or three months hence, resort to this option might not have helped the BJP. As for getting the assembly dissolved, that too could not have rescued the BJP out of its predicament. Not only many of its sitting legislators would have deserted the party; there was every possibility that the BJP’s strength would have further come down in the next elections. As the BJP has already suffered severe erosion in its base in UP, such a step would have proved suicidal for it, more so during the run-up to the next Lok Sabha polls.    

MAKING BEST OUT OF THE WORST

THIS was a typical “devil and the deep sea” situation for the BJP. The irony of the situation is that the BJP-led union government was compelled to allow the formation of an alternative government in the state, led by the same “Mulla Mulayam” whom it had always considered its enemy number one in UP. It has been reported that the home minister cum deputy prime minister, L K Advani, leader of the hawks in BJP, was against the idea of allowing the SP leader to form a government, but in the end he too had to yield.

This development was accompanied by a show of magnanimity on part of the BJP. Even though Mulayam Singh Yadav was the only claimant, the governor did not invite him to form a government. Only after leaders of various parties met the governor, he conceded that Mulayam had the support of 204 MLAs, a majority. But even then, he asked Mulayam for a list of his supporters, which Mulayam as a principle refused to give. There is thus every reason to believe that the governor invited Mulayam only after getting a go-ahead from BJP leadership. Thus the fact about the BJP’s magnanimity is that, as explained earlier, it had absolutely no option available to it.

The reality of this magnanimity is evident from the threat the BJP leadership has reportedly doled out to Mulayam Singh Yadav. The threat is that the BJP will get president’s rule imposed in the state the moment the SP leader tries to woo the BJP legislators to his side. According to press reports, the BJP has no objection if Mulayam tries to break the BSP legislature party; only that he must not eye the BJP’s own flock.

In the meantime, Ms Mayawati has accused that the SP chief has entered a secret deal with the BJP and certain scribes have taken up the theme. It may even be that such stories are being planted in the media. There is also an allegation that certain business houses including the Ambanis wanted to have a Mulayam-led government in Lucknow. What is the extent of truth in such allegations, nobody is in a position to judge today. What is certain, however, is that, unable to understand which way to go, the BJP is simply trying to make the best out of a worst scenario from its point of view.

Yet, in view of the allegations being labeled and speculations made in media, it is all the more necessary for the SP leader to establish his credentials and stick to his secular platform.

GROUND FOR APPREHENSION

AS for the BJP, how far it will succeed in retrieving its base that has suffered erosion and also its prestige that has taken a beating in the state, only time will tell. That its position is unenviable today is not in doubt. Even certain pro-BJP mediapersons have accepted this fact in so many words. This is why the party is trying its best to wriggle out of the present situation. Its desperation is understandable in view of the fact that UP is, population-wise, the biggest state of the Indian Union, has been playing a crucial role in Indian politics, and would send even after bifurcation as many as 81 members to Lok Sabha. The loss of UP for the BJP may well lead to the loss of its government at the centre.      

But this is also what creates ground for apprehensions about the BJP game plan. It is now evident that the party is all set to play its communal card once again in the country, and more so in Uttar Pradesh. At the moment, the BJP is seeking to make the most out of the Archaeological Survey of India’s report about its recent excavations at the Babri site in Ayodhya. Regarding the ASI report itself, it is clear that it is seriously flawed, rather distorted, as will be evident from the detailed material we are printing elsewhere in this issue. It is clear that the ASI’s conclusion that there existed a temple below the Babri site, cannot stand archaeological scrutiny. Nor has it any relevance for the real issue underlying the Ayodhya dispute that concerns the ownership of the site. But this is precisely what the Sangh Parivar has clutched upon, like a drowning man clutching upon a straw. However, the untenability of the ASI conclusion does not preclude the possibility of its exploitation by the Sangh Parivar for its fratricidal game.  

That the Parivar is desperately seeking to misuse the ASI report is clear from the way the VHP, BJP and RSS leaders are trying to raise a hullabaloo about it. For example, when the All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) said it would contest the ASI report in court, the BJP vehemently reacted to it; a BJP spokesman even went to the extent of saying that “We also condemn the efforts by other parties to challenge the ASI report.” The fellow has apparently forgotten that the Lucknow bench of Allahabad High Court has itself given “other parties” time to challenge the report.  

This is the thing that the new regime in Lucknow will have to beware of. It was during the first government of Mulayam Singh in UP in 1990 that the Sangh Parivar brought its unruly karsevaks to Ayodhya; some of them were captured even with dynamite sticks. At that time, it was the state government’s determined stand that saved the day. The Parivar may well try to play a similar game again, and that is why the new government will have to exercise utmost vigilance in order to defend national unity and the secular fabric of our country. The whole country will be keenly watching what the state government does after winning the vote of confidence on September 8. But one thing is sure: any laxity on part of the state government or its constituent or supporting parties will only provide a boost to the communal forces that are internally weakening today.   

September 3, 2003