People's Democracy

 EDITORIAL

 Elections 2004: Reality Check

ALONGWITH the New Year the country is virtually being pushed into the election mode. Based on the euphoria generated by its victories in the three state assembly elections held recently, the BJP appears pushing for an early Lok Sabha election hoping to capitalize on these victories. A formal decision is likely to be taken next week in the BJP’s national executive.

Simultaneously, an orchestrated euphoria is being created about the so-called “feel good factor” through a state-sponsored campaign of “Shining India” (about this we had commented in these columns recently – see People’s Democracy issue dated November 9, 2003).

Apart from the fact that there is very little content to the so-called feel-good factor, a reality check regarding the assembly election victories needs to be undertaken. First, these four states in north India that went to the polls together have 72 Lok Sabha seats. UP alone even after the separation of Uttaranchal, has 80 Lok Sabha seats. Secondly, of these 72 seats, the BJP already holds 52 of them. In fact, the assembly segment data of the 1999 Lok Sabha elections shows that the BJP-led in 127 seats in Rajasthan while it won 120 in 2003. Likewise in Chattisgarh it led in 61 and has now won 49. In Delhi, it led in 52 assembly segments while now winning only in 20. Even if the BJP were to maintain its 99 Lok Sabha performance, which has seen erosion in the 2003 elections, then, it cannot hope to significantly improve on this performance.

Undoubtedly it would be argued that the issues in the state elections and the general elections would be different. True. But the recent assembly elections have clearly shown anti-incumbency as the major factor. That this would operate as effectively in a general election would be the BJP’s major cause for worry.

The state of the NDA also needs to be examined. After the elections in J&K the National Conference quit the NDA. Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti quit followed by Ajit Singh’s Lok Dal. Now the DMK has quit followed by the MDMK. The PMK is virtually sitting on the wall. All this clearly shows that the BJP’s singular pursuance of its communal agenda is being made an issue by these parties, which had once opportunistically joined them for a share in power, to desert the NDA now.

The BJP’s flirtation with the BSP in UP lies in shambles. By making Mayawati the chief minister and joining her government, the BJP hoped to greatly benefit through an alliance in the Lok Sabha polls. Mayawati has now publicly pledged to ensure BJP’s defeat. The BJP has already been reduced to a distant third political force in UP.

Even those remaining with the NDA, are subjected to a basic contradiction we had repeatedly referred to in these columns earlier viz. the longer they stay with the NDA and share power, the larger is the erosion of their electoral support base in their respective states. This can be seen by the fact that the Akali Dal lost the elections in Punjab earlier. The Janata Dal (U) unit in Karnataka has virtually disintegrated, the Trinamul Congress has rendered itself to greater confusion than what was earlier thought of its capacities! The Samata JD(U) merger of the Bihar units has produced three separate parties! The Biju Janata Dal in Orissa is virtually split down the line. Recollect that during the Presidential elections, Captain Lakshmi Sahgal polled the largest number of votes outside the Left fold in Orissa. Even the so-called formidable Telugu Desam is facing a serious challenge in Andhra Pradesh. This is  reflected by the fact that many within the party are questioning the sagacity of its leader’s decision to dissolve the assembly and go in for early elections. Given this state of affairs, it is not difficult to anticipate that these parties will find it difficult even to retain their Lok Sabha seats which added to the BJP’s kitty in the NDA earlier.

For instance, in Andhra Pradesh the TDP had won 29 seats and the BJP 7 making a total of 36 out of 42.  In the erstwhile united Bihar state, the BJP and its allies won 41 out of the 54 seats. In Orissa, the BJP and its allies won 19 out of the 21 seats. In Tamilnadu the BJP and its allies won 26 out of the 39 seats. In West Bengal, the BJP and Trinamul together won the highest number of seats lost by the Left Front in recent years i.e. 10. In Delhi, the BJP won all the 7 seats. Given the current state of affairs that we discussed above, it is very unlikely that the BJP’s allies would be able to help the BJP like they did in 1999.

This however, will depend upon the ability of the non-BJP secular parties to ensure that the division of votes amongst them should not assist the communal forces and their allies. The recent elections to the various assemblies have shown the gains made by the BJP and its allies precisely due to such divisions.

As we go to press moves have begun with the Congress party realising the need for allies and beginning some discussions with various parties. In this context it must be reiterated that the CPI(M) continues to maintain that only a policy and struggle based non-Congress alternative to the communal forces can be the sustainable alternative in the long run. The central task in the coming elections however, would remain to seek the defeat of the BJP-led communal combine. In order to achieve this the CPI(M) has clearly stated that it can have no part in any Congress-led front or alliance. However, keeping in mind the central task of defeating the communal forces, suitable tactics will have to be worked out on the basis of the concrete ground realities and political situation in different states.

As we stated in these columns last week, the year 2004 provides us the opportunity to deliver ourselves from the disastrous rule of the BJP-led NDA. Viewed from all aspects and angles the sooner these forces are removed from controlling state power, the better it is for the country and the people. It is this central task that must be addressed in the coming days.