People's Democracy

Media Favours BJP: Hype And Reality

Harkishan Singh Surjeet

THESE days the media are at their game again --- the game of projecting as if the BJP led NDA is sure to come back to power. One of the papers has even dubbed the coming Lok Sabha polls as unnecessary, on the presumption that their outcome is already known to one and all. But, as Yogendra Yadav puts it, “If the media were to decide elections, the general elections to the 14th Lok Sabha would be a pointless exercise” (The Hindu, March 15). He then adds that he is “not convinced of this established wisdom” and that “years of watching elections has convinced me of the value of political commonsense and has taught me to disregard hype.”

RECALLING A BIT OF HISTORY

IN fact, the role of a sizeable chunk of the media consists in generating precisely such hype at this stage when the nation is to go through the 14th general elections. Yet this is not something new. For the last several years, what we have been witnessing is that come an election and the media pundits go wholehog to make the people believe that the BJP is going to win the elections hands down. This is precisely what they did in 1991 and 1996, and in some later elections. Moreover, in 1998, despite all their projections of a landslide for the BJP, the latter could form a government only after hurriedly cobbling a motley post-poll alliance. Then, in 1999, the BJP could not increase a single seat in Lok Sabha, compared to 1998, though its allies did register sizeable gains.

We may even recall here a bit of history --- that whatever seats the BJP got in 1996 and 1998 was, to a considerable extent, because of the sense of revulsion the people had developed for the Congress regime of 1991-96 and then for the meanest type of Congress politics during 1996-98. So much so that the party first forced the United Front government to change its leader and then brought the UF government altogether down for the narrowest kind of considerations. In contrast, in 1999, the BJP had no such negative factor to exploit and no positive achievement of its government to bank upon. Further, the Kargil episode also enabled it to exploit the popular sentiment though, ironically, the BJP led government’s own gross negligence was itself responsible for the terrorist incursions into the area.

The inference is obvious. If only the BJP were not in alliance with about two dozen parties and if only the Kargil episode had not taken place, the party would probably have suffered in 1999 itself.

CLASS INTEREST AT STAKE                   

BUT it is precisely these kinds of considerations that our media pundits very conveniently ignore. It is therefore no wonder that, one after another, most of their forecasts have miserably failed to materialise in the last one decade or more. This is not to deny that a few of their pre-poll surveys or exit surveys have been close to the mark; yet one cannot say that this was altogether devoid of an element of fluke.

Yet, one point must not be overlooked. If some people are fond of saying that people’s memory is short, they must also add that the memory of many of our media pundits is no less short. However, there is a crucial difference here. If people’s memory is short because of their day-to-day preoccupation with the struggle for life, the memory of media pundits is short because of their own choice. To forget how their past predictions had miserably failed is, to put it plainly, necessary to serve the vested interest of those who pay them hefty salaries and perks.

The point is obvious. A very, very large chunk of the Indian big bourgeoisie and also of foreign multinationals have unmistakably indicated that the BJP or the BJP led NDA is the safest bet in so far as their class interests are concerned. Going by a recent newspaper report (Hindustan Times, March 5), while the Congress has hired only 4 helicopters for election campaigning, the BJP has hired as many as 20. This only gives a boost to what the people widely believe --- that the BJP has been the largest beneficiary of the Indian as wall as foreign bourgeoisie’s largesse. But these sections of bourgeoisie also know that if only the BJP comes back to power, they would be able to recover may times over what they have donated.

Economists like Jean Dreze and others have already shown that before the Vajpayee government recommended the Lok Sabha’s dissolution, it gave hefty concessions to the rich while claiming to give relief (widely called “sops”) to other segments of the population. In such a situation, one can well guess to what extent the BJP would go to repay its real, behind-the-scene benefactors.

POLITICAL RACECOURSE

THE sale of public sector concerns to private parties at dirt-cheap prices is only one case in point, among many, through here too examples like the BALCO and Centaur Hotel stand testimony to their shameless perfidies. Nay, one of their ministers was so arrogant as to abuse even a constitutional authority like the CAG when the latter pointed out an irregularity in the sale of a public sector concern.

To reiterate, the bourgeoisie, Indian and foreign, well know which horse to bet upon. It is therefore quite natural that, like professional racecourse goers, they keep shouting in favour of the horse they have bet upon.

This is not to forget that politics is not exactly like a racecourse. In a racecourse, mere shouting does not necessarily make a particular horse win, even though professional gamblers do make guesses as to which of the horses is likely to win. In politics, on the contrary, the bourgeoisie and other exploiting classes have not only put their bet upon the BJP but are also trying to ensure that the political horse of their choice wins.

In short, all the so called expert analyses in the bourgeois controlled media, all the psephological exercises and the like are not just to guess the mood of the masses; they are in fact attempts to influence the mass mood in a particular direction. These are calculated moves to ensure a particular outcome by repeatedly telling the people, even without having a basis for it, that that particular outcome is already ensured.

A COUNTRY OF DIVERSITIES

THERE is not denying, however, that there are people who are not taken in by all this media hype. For example, Yogendra Yadav, already referred to, is prepared to accept, on the basis of certain factors, that the NDA is today better placed than the opposition camp. Yet, to him, “all this is not enough to conclude that the NDA is headed for a repeat of its performance and is sure to come back to power. For this to be true, one has to produce evidence that there is not only no anti-incumbency mood against the NDA, but also that there is a positive sentiment, something of a ‘feel good’ factor across the country.”

Yadav’s contention is unequivocal: “A BJP victory appears to be a foregone conclusion if the media and the opinion polls are to be believed. But that is really not the case.”

Earlier, in Hindustan Times (March 5), a similar sentiment was voiced by the paper’s scribe Shekhar Iyer: “The NDA might appear to be riding high on the India Shining campaign, but mathematics on the ground suggests that the ruling alliance will find it difficult to increase its seats in the Lok Sabha. In fact, it would not be surprising if the opposition gained ground in some states.”

The question is: Whom to believe? Those who predict the NDA’s victory or those who are skeptical about it? The answer will be obvious if one notes that the former want us to overlook the very, very, very complex entity that we call Indian society. What to talk of others, even the Hindu community is not a uniform group in all parts of the country; the Hindus of Tamilnadu, for example, are vastly different from those of the North East who, in turn, are no less different from those of Jammu & Kashmir, and no amount of phrase mongering in the name of Hindutva can obliterate these differences which also get reflected in their voting behaviours. On the contrary, skeptics say one must not be taken in by the supposed uniformity claimed by media pundits and insist that differences must be kept in view. Yadav puts it succinctly: “Ever since 1996, the Lok Sabha elections are no longer a single nationwide race --- for all practical purposes the general election now is 28 electoral races held simultaneously; the national level verdict is nothing but the sum total of all the state level verdicts. A state is the effective unit of political choice even in Lok Sabha elections.”

To this, one can only add that in case of big states like UP and Maharashtra, even the west does not know what the east is doing.

STATEWISE CALCULATIONS                

THUS, while not denying for a moment the basic unity of India that underlies these diversities, it is precisely the latter which make the media predictions untenable. Some of the analyses that concentrated on state-wise or zone-wise calculations lead one to this very conclusion.

Here, on the basis of data, we try to derive our own conclusions. As we know, the BJP and allies won all the 4 seats in Himachal Pradesh, 7 in Delhi and 10 in Haryana, and in these states, naturally, there is absolutely no chance of an increase in their tallies. Here, if anything, they can only lose. It is being believed, for example, that the BJP may lose at least 2 seats in HP and 3 in Delhi. In Haryana, the INLD and BJP have already parted company and are now at daggers drawn. They contested the polls together in 1998, which also meant that large chunks of rural as well as urban voters voted for the same combine, but now a rural-urban split is certain to cause grievous harms to both these parties.

In Jammu & Kashmir, the BJP got 2 out of 6 seats, with no possibility of any increase. The fact that the National Conference has already deserted the NDA, can only make the situation worse for the BJP.

In 1999, when Uttaranchal was part of Uttar Pradesh, the BJP had got 4 seats, conceding one to the Congress. The story doing the round here is that the party may lose 2 to all the 4 seats.

In 1999, the BJP and allies had already reached near saturation points in Orissa (19 out of 21), Bihar (30/40), Andhra Pradesh (36/42) and Maharashtra (28/48). But the BJP’s allies are today in a bad shape in all these states. The BJD has suffered a serious split in Orissa while in Bihar the JD(U), which recently got a new face through a hotchpotch plastic surgery, is not only facing internal dissensions but also the ire of its supporters whose expectations is has been unable to fulfil. (The party suffers the same plight in Karnataka.) In Andhra, a formidable force against the TDP-BJP combine is just about to take a final shape, and is likely to give a major jolt to the ruling combine. Similarly, in Maharashtra, according to Yadav, the Congress-NCP alliance, supported by others, “may reduce the NDA’s tally.”

Among the Left strongholds, the BJP stands no chance in Kerala or Tripura while in West Bengal the Left Front is all set to overturn the Trinamul-BJP apple cart. Here the latter combine had got 10 out of 42 seats last time, but the tally is certain to come down this time. It is not surprising that the Trinamul chief Mamata Banerjee is seeking to have a tacit alliance with the Congress in order to salvage her prestige. But if the Congress takes the bait, it can do so only at its own cost.

In Punjab, the Akali-BJP combine had already reached a low point last time and they were expecting to improve their tally now. But recent trends in mass mood give an indication that their hope may not materialise.

In the recent assembly elections, the BJP wrested Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh from the Congress; this is what heightened the BJP’s expectations and made it prepone the Lok Sabha polls. The party believes that it will be able to maintain the support it had received in November. But the thing is that the BJP already has 8 out of 11 Lok Sabha seats in Chhattisgarh and 16 out of 25 in Rajasthan. Will the party be able to improve upon its tallies in these states? It seems doubtful. The Indian Express (March 15) has already reported that the promises made by BJP for the November assembly polls may boomerang upon itself in Madhya Pradesh.  

Gujarat has been the BJP’s strongest bastion, but the same can be said about this state too, where the BJP got 20 out of 26 seats in 1999.

In Jharkhand, where the BJP’s tally is 11/14, it is not only facing internal dissidence; even a strong anti-incumbency trend is discernible here.

If the party, by chance, marginally improves its performance in Karnataka, how far it will compensate for its losses elsewhere, is anybody’s guess.

As for Tamilnadu, the DMK-led alliance got 22 out of 39 seats in 1999 while the BJP bagged 4. Now the DMK and its allies are aligned to the Congress and others, and the combination appears formidable. The AIADMK, which toppled the Vajpayee government in 1999, is now with the BJP. But, in terms of the seats allotted, it has already shown the BJP what its real worth is.

The North East states account for only 25 seats in all, and nobody is prepared to believe that the BJP may get more than 4 or 5 seats here. In Assam, the biggest state of the region, the AGP was in alliance with the BJP but itself failed to win a single seat. Now the AGP is set to go it alone. In Meghalaya, the Sangma outfit’s debacle in recent local bodies polls only shows that Sangma can be, at the best, a lame horse for the BJP. In any case, now his outfit has got absorbed in Trinamul Congress.

DESPERATE TO THE CORE

AND now remains Uttar Pradesh, the biggest state of the Indian Union, with 80 Lok Sabha seats. Here the BJP “should be content if it can retain the 25 seats it has now.” To Yadav, the “NDA cannot possibly improve upon its tally in the northern zone; its losses may vary from none to a loss of 20 seats.”

It is therefore not surprising that the BJP is trying its best to keep the SP, BSP, Congress and RLD away from one another. The party had to eat a humble pie and open its doors to Kalyan Singh whom it had, at the instance of Vajpayee, expelled from its ranks. It was propagated that Singh’s re-entry into the BJP would improve its chances, particularly in west UP where Ajit Singh’s RLD has deserted the NDA. Yet, today, the party appears desperate to the core. Kalyan Singh has run away from his home district, Aligarh, to contest from Bulandshahar, and Vinay Katiyar has said good-bye to Faizabad, hoping that Lakhimpur Khiri will be a safer pasture for him. 

This desperation is understandable. As pointed out, from Jammu & Kashmir in the north to Tamilnadu in the south, ten odd parties have quit the NDA bandwagon and this is enough to give the BJP leaders a lot of headache, as the party has little tangible to show as its achievements. As for the parties that are still in the NDA, many are in a bad shape, facing internal dissensions or people’s ire or both. In such a scenario, if the poll results give a rude shock to the BJP and NDA, their Shining India campaign notwithstanding, no one will be surprised except perhaps the media pundits.