People's Democracy

UDF-BJP Gang Up Trounced In Thiruvananthapuram

Pinarayi Vijayan

THE victory of the LDF candidate and CPI leader Pannyan Raveendran in the by-election to the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency, by a larger margin than that of late P K Vasudevan Nair, has once again confirmed the dramatic shift that has been taking place in Kerala politics in favour of LDF. The UDF is getting increasingly isolated and even the unholy alliance with BJP has not been able to reverse its fortunes.

Of the total 7.59 lakh votes polled, the LDF received 3.90 lakh i.e., 51.51 per cent votes. This is the highest ever number of votes polled by the LDF in Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency and 1.06 lakh votes more than that polled in the last Lok Sabha election in 2004. BJP that had received 2.26 lakh votes in the last election could secure only 36,690 votes and its candidate, former state president of BJP C K Padmanabhan lost his deposit. Despite large scale cross voting of RSS fraction in favour of the UDF, the UDF candidate V S Sivakumar could get only 3.16 lakh votes indicating severe erosion of the traditional vote base of the UDF when compared to the last Lok Sabha election.

SUCCESSIVE REVERSES

The present defeat is the latest of the serious of electoral reverses that the UDF has suffered during the last two years. In the by-election to the Ernakulam Lok Sabha constituency in 2003, UDF candidate was defeated by a margin of 22,132 votes. UDF had won the seat in 1999 Lok Sabha election by a margin of 1.11 lakh votes. The explanation given by the UDF was that the dissension within the Congress was responsible for the defeat. Thereafter the different Congress groups patched up their differences in the run up to the 2004 Lok Sabha election. Yet they were dealt a crushing defeat. Congress could not win even a single parliament seat from the state. This prompted the Congress to refurbish its image by changing the chief minister. However, the UDF was defeated with highest of the margins in the by-elections to Azheekkode and Kuthuparamba assembly constituencies.

The above defeats prompted the Congress to enter into a tactical understanding with the BJP in the election to local self-governments in September 2005. In a number of local bodies, they even put up common candidates. In return for UDF support to the BJP candidates in certain constituencies, the BJP did not put up candidates or put up only weak candidates where the LDF and UDF were evenly poised. However, the LDF won nearly 50 per cent of the votes and 75 per cent of the local self-governments. The BJP was able to significantly increase its seats even though its vote share was halved to 5.51 per cent.

This success prompted a section within the BJP to strike a deal with the UDF for Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha by-election in return for a firm promise of UDF support to a couple of BJP candidates in the forthcoming elections to the assembly. The BJP so far has not succeeded in getting representation in the assembly and is desperate to open account in the next election. The calculation of the UDF leadership, which took the initiative to broker the deal, was that the tactical support of the BJP would help it to stem the tide of electoral setbacks it was being subjected to. Victory in Thiruvananthapuram would have helped the UDF to rally its demoralised forces for the impending assembly poll.

Besides the pact with the BJP, the UDF tried to mobilise different castes and communities through many devious ways. They even went to the extent of organising separate convention of castes and communities. They attempted to whip up chauvinistic nativity feelings against the LDF candidate from Kannur. Prominent Congress leaders like Vayalar Ravi and KPCC president Ramesh Chennithala shocked ordinary citizens by their virulent attempts of character assassination of the LDF candidate. The money spent by the UDF was also unprecedented. Money power was used to influence caste leaders and also for large-scale purchase of votes. However, the election result proved that the electorate responded more to the political campaign of the LDF rather than to the machinations of the UDF.

Two events that occurred during the course of the campaign highlighted the deterioration of the law and order situation in the state. The first was the gang attack on the Bishop house at Neyyattinkara led by a local Congress leader to terrorise a priest who was witness to a murder committed by the gang a year ago. The UDF government refused to arrest the culprits for more than two weeks, forcing the clergy and laity to come out in the street in protest. This incident further alienated the Latin Catholic Christians who traditionally supported the UDF.

The custodial torture and death of a youth on the eve of election in Thiruvanan-thapuram city shocked everyone. Even more so, because the agitation against the torture and murder of yet another innocent youth in another city police station a few months back was still going on. A brutal murder of an engineering student in the city college was another shocking event. The growth of organised criminal gangs and their police nexus was an important theme of the LDF election campaign. To counter the effective campaign of the LDF regarding the deteriorating law and order situation, the UDF organised a so-called "civil liberties convention" against the alleged atrocities of the CPI(M) in Kannur. The efforts to camouflage the police atrocities and police infringement of civil liberties only backfired on the UDF. The so-called victims of CPI(M) atrocities who were paraded in Thiruvana-nthapuram were either victims of RSS violence or accused in criminal cases.

The LDF campaign exposed the bankrupt polices of the UDF government and highlighted the militant struggles and resistances that had been organised during the last four years. The struggle against crass commercialisation of education and atrocities against women were important points of references. The globalisation policies of UPA government and its foreign policy, particularly the Iran vote, were also taken up in the campaign.

The effective political campaign was successful in weaning away many sympathisers and voters from UDF camp. Some of the prominent Congressmen like the freedom fighter K E Mammen came out in public in support of the LDF candidate. An important political development was the understanding that the LDF entered with the Democratic Indira Congress (DIC) who had broken away from the Congress. It was the major political group that had broken away from UDF camp since the last Lok Sabha election. Their vigorous campaign in favour of the LDF candidate also contributed to the shift of UDF voters.

The above erosion of traditional vote base of the UDF to a large extent neutralised the shift of the BJP votes in favour of the UDF. The votes secured by the BJP leader are the lowest secured by BJP during the last two decades in Thiruvanan-thapuram Lok Sabha constituency. This has sharpened the factional struggles and the crisis within the BJP. The BJP candidate made public his criticism and returned to his native place without participating in the vote counting. The BJP president P S Sreedharan Pillai has resigned from his post.

The LDF has demanded the resignation of the ministry. But the chief minster has made it clear that he will cling on to his office. The defeat will certainly demoralise the UDF further and deepen the crisis in its ranks.