People's Democracy

POLITICAL COMMENTARY

On UP Election Results

THERE has been a clear verdict in the UP assembly elections. This is the first time since 1991, when a single party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, has won an absolute majority. This is welcome to the extent that there is no need for a government being formed with opportunist alliances and defections. The BSP leader Mayawati had become the chief minister on three occasions earlier after coming to an understanding with the BJP. The first time was in 1995 when the SP-BSP coalition government fell apart. The second time was in 1997 when Mayawati headed a BSP-BJP government with an understanding that the chief ministership will rotate after six months. The third time was after the 2002 assembly elections when after three months, the BSP and the BJP entered into an understanding. This opportunist combine also collapsed in 2003.

These alliances between the BSP, a party which represents the dalits, and the BJP were retrogressive in that the communal Hindutva party sought to maintain itself in power even though it had begun to lose ground after the heights reached in the 1991-92 days of communal polarisation.

Apart from the decisive victory of the BSP, the most notable feature of the UP election results is the major setback for the BJP. The BJP which had won 88 seats and polled 20.12 per cent in 2002 has come down to 50 seats and 16.9 per cent of the vote. The BJP, after the Punjab and Uttarakhand elections began nurturing hopes that it would achieve a similar success in Uttar Pradesh. This would have set the stage for its comeback at the national level. As decided by the Lucknow session of the party, in November 2006, the BJP went all out with its communal propaganda relying on the RSS. The hate campaign against the Muslims was blatantly displayed in the CD prepared for the election campaign. RSS personnel were given the role of managing the election campaign in key positions. In the entire campaign the BJP’s propaganda was no different from that of communal fanatics like Adithyanath of Gorakhpur.

The debacle suffered by the BJP has resulted in its getting the lowest number of seats since 1989. The people have rejected its communal platform. The BJP ignored the realities on the ground. In the last three years in a series of by elections held in the state, the BJP lost its deposits in a majority of the seats it contested. In the corporation elections held in November last year it won eight out of the 11 city corporations which gave it a boost. But it did not take into account the fact that the BSP did not fight the polls and the SP is traditionally weak in the big cities. The BJP did not do well at all in the nagar palika and nagar panchayat elections exposing its weakness in the rural areas.

Having cynically played the game of caste politics and “social engineering”, the BJP learnt to its mortification that the BSP has proved superior in this sport.

The Samajwadi Party had to fight against big odds. The three year record of the Mulayam Singh government evoked widespread discontent mainly due to the lawlessness and patronage of criminal activities by elements within the Samajwadi Party. This spoilt the image of the government and nullified the effects of some of the positive measures taken by the state government earlier. The SP has been able to retain its electoral base even though it lost in terms of seats and got only 97 seats. In percentage terms, the Samajwadi Party got 25.45 per cent of the vote as compared to 25.13 in 2002. There is an important lesson for the Samajwadi Party leadership and in particular Mulayam Singh Yadav. Without a sound socio-economic programme addressing the needs of the poor peasants and the rural poor, artisans, weavers and the working class, the SP cannot rally wider support by merely relying on caste equations. It was known prior to the elections that the main contest would be between the BSP and the SP. This has proved correct. The SP is the main opposition party today in Uttar Pradesh.

The Congress party which has been marginalised in the state in the last two decades had hoped that it would be able to revive its electoral base and increase its seats and percentage of votes. The campaign conducted by Rahul Gandhi was seen to be the instrument for this revival. The elections have not produced any miracles. The Congress’s decline remains a reality and the disease cannot be cured by whirlwind election campaigns by the Gandhi family.

The performance of the BJP and the Congress in the biggest state of the country has once again emphatically debunked talk about the emergence of a two-party system in the country. On the eve of the UP election results, president Kalam had commended the two-party system as good for democracy. The UP results are an assertion that the multi-party system is a reality and parliamentary democracy in India cannot be constrained into a two-party system.

The Left is not represented in the new assembly. In the previous assembly elections, only the CPI(M) had won two seats. This time the Party lost both the sitting seats. The CPI could not win a seat in these elections too. The CPI(M) has come second in three seats, Najibabad, Meja and Mehnagar (the first two were sitting seats). It has also polled a respectable vote in the two adjoining constituencies of Ferozabad and Tundla where it got 13,000 and 14,000 votes respectively. In the rest of the nine seats that it contested it has fared poorly.

This is the first time that the communists are not represented in the assembly since 1952. This is a matter of deep concern. The caste appeal and growing caste fragmentation had succeeded in eroding the mass base of the Left. This has been followed by two decades of intensive consolidation of caste politics and identities which are being used by various parties for electoral purposes. It is misleading to talk of caste barriers being broken down as done by the English language media, pointing to the electoral success of the BSP. The success of the BSP lies in putting together a caste coalition utilising the solid base of the dalits. This was possible not by breaking down caste identities but by nurturing and appealing to caste blocs to come together for mutual interests.

The BSP victory therefore has a two-fold aspect. The first is the continuing appeal of dalit empowerment which the BSP symbolises. The second is the more systematic spread of caste as a political mobilisation tool, overriding other factors. It is this latter feature which threatens to overwhelm the positive features of the former. How the Mayawati government will perform and fulfill the aspirations of the dalits and oppressed sections remains to be seen.

Unless the CPI(M) and the Left are able to project a platform which takes into account the aspirations of the socially oppressed sections along with the wider unity of all sections of the working people, it cannot counter the caste polarisation and mobilisation. A political and social platform which can appeal to the vast mass of the people who suffer from both social and economic exploitation is a necessity which will be felt in the days to come. The opportunist and transient nature of caste coalitions cannot provide any substantial gains to the people. It is only by building united movements and struggles which can also take into account the social problems of the people that the CPI(M) and the Left can begin to rally those who are at present under the sway of caste appeal.

(May 15, 2007)