People's Democracy

Kerala:

LDF Poised  For An Emphatic Win

T M Thomas Isaac

IN the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the Left in Kerala set a record by winning 18 out of the 20 seats. But for the 1967 elections, the Left never won more than 50 per cent of the seats in Lok Sabha polls. Even when it made remarkable improvement in the tally of the assembly seats, its performance in the Lok Sabha elections was far from satisfactory. The basic reason was that the electoral support of the Left in Kerala had tended to stagnate at around 40-45 per cent and, further, it was handicapped by the alleged bias of the electorate when it came to the Lok Sabha elections. However, the successive elections to Lok Sabha (2004), local governments (2005) and assembly (2006) reveal the increase of the electoral support to the Left towards 50 per cent, crossing the Rubicon. It is now clear that the upward shift in the electoral support of the Left has tended to stabilise and it is all set to emulate the performance of 2004 elections to the Lok Sabha.

The most important factor that has contributed to the electoral stagnation was the historical failure of the Left to make inroads into the minority communities of Muslims and Christians, which constitute more than 40 per cent of the electorate. Patient work undertaken during the last one decade as well as the role of the Left in protecting secularism in the center stage of national politics had its reverberations in Kerala also, particularly among the minority communities. This has been responsible for remarkable electoral advancement of the Left in the recent period. The utter disgust in the Muslim community with the pro-American and Israeli stance in the Indian foreign policy, has remarkably strengthened their shift towards the Left. A number of Muslim organisations, groups and individuals, including Maudani�s Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) declared unconditional support to the Left Democratic Front (LDF).

Unlike the Muslim community the advance of the Left among the Christians has slowed down. The reason was the confrontation between the Church, and the state government regarding the nature of social control over self-financing professional colleges. The LDF government wanted to ensure social justice through reservation of half of the seats in these colleges to students from backward sections. Apart from specifying collection of low fee for such students, the government also wanted to ensure merit in the selection of students into these colleges. The college managements, who sought protection under the minority education institution status, fiercely resisted this move. However, it must be clarified that the majority of Christian community outside Roman Catholic Church, such as the Jacobites, Orthodox, Pentecostal and Protestant Churches refused to join the anti-communist �crusade�. The state government also took initiative to defuse the situation through a dialogue with the college managements.

IMPACT OF GOVT

ACHIEVEMENTS

The greatest asset of the LDF in the election campaign was the achievements of the state government in many fields. In fact, there was no anti-incumbency feeling at all among the people. The following recent measures adopted by the state government went down well with the working people.

• Ration rice was to be supplied at Rs 2 per kg for nearly 25 lakh families (by central government estimate there are only 11 lakh households in the BPL list)

• Pension for the unorganised sector workers was increased from Rs 100 to Rs 250. Twenty lakh people are expected to benefit from this.

• 25 lakh families are to be given free medical insurance.

• Besides the farmers, the debts of fisher folk and dalits have been waived off.

• Rice procurement at Rs 11 per kg (as against Rs 9 fixed by the centre), interest-free loans and free crop insurance for paddy cultivators have been declared.

• The cattle feed subsidy of Re 0.50 per kg has been instituted.

• Most of the welfare measures, particularly for fisher folk and dalits, have nearly been doubled.

• The women�s self-help groups provided loans at 4 per cent.

The above is only an illustrative list. Besides these, the government has also announced Rs 10,000 crore construction investment programme as an anti-recession package. Half of this package is to be directly implemented by various departments of the government, such as PWD, Irrigation and Industries. The other half is to be financed by public sector units, para-statals such as Housing Board, Roads and Bridges Corporation etc. through availing of market loans. The largest component of the latter investment programme is the Rs 2000 crore total housing programme to be implemented by local governments. An investment programme of this scale is unprecedented in the state and has aroused all around high expectations.

The government has also enunciated a policy of protecting the traditional industries and agriculture while at the same time promoting rapid development of new growth sectors such as Tourism and IT. In order to attract private investment, a bold programme of infrastructure development has been announced.

RESORTING TO

SMEAR CAMPAIGN

Since the Congress-led UDF could not assail the above record of the LDF government through out the campaign they were engaged in efforts to smear the image of LDF by raking up the controversies such as SNC Lavalin Hydro Electric Agreement. The LDF was also accused of abandoning secularism by accepting the support of the PDP. This false propaganda was effectively countered by the LDF campaign. The previous UDF government basically drew up the SNC Lavalin agreement, though it was the Nayanar government which had to sign the final agreement. If the latter had contributed anything in substance to the agreement it was only to wrest greater concessions from the Canadian company. Implementation of the agreement was largely under the Antony-led UDF government and it was their lapses that were responsible for the non-implementation of some of the clauses. At any rate, after the Rs 10,000 crore Israeli arms deal scandal broke out even the UDF could not flog the Lavalin issue.

As regards the tie-up with Maudani, it was clear that the PDP was not a constituent of the LDF and their support was unconditional. There was no candidate of PDP being supported by the LDF. More over Maudani himself publicly disowned some of his extremist postures before his nine year-term in jail as an under-trial prisoner. The UDF had no problem in accepting his support in 2001 assembly election while he was still in jail. In 2004 Lok Sabha elections, Maudani still in jail but chastised by the betrayal of the UDF, had extended support to the LDF. However, in 2009, the UDF was trying to arouse a Hindu backlash citing Maudani�s support to the LDF. These efforts also were largely nullified after the support of NDF � a Muslim extremist organisation � to the UDF came into the open. CPI(M) state secretary publicly declared that the LDF do not need the votes of any extremist organisation, whether it be the RSS or the NDF.

MEDIA�S GANG-UP

AGAINST THE LEFT

A remarkable feature of the 2009 election campaign in Kerala was the gang-up of the almost entire media, both print and visual, against the LDF. It was the media that led the anti-LDF campaign through their biased coverage and one-sided interpretations of issues and events. Outright slanders were being circulated again and again, even using yellow journals. Only comparable experience for this anti-communist tirade must be the infamous anti-communist McCarthy era of the 1950s.

The depth to which UDF�s political morality can sink is slowly being revealed by the conspiracy to subvert the election itself by engineering murder of a senior political leader in Kannur on the day of election and putting the blame on the LDF. A large number of criminals from various parts of the state were brought to Kannur and many of them were at the Congress office. By afternoon the opposition leader also arrived in Kannur by helicopter. He was to hold a press conference. Luckily the police detained one of the vehicles with criminals and the conspiracy was thwarted. Though nobody had made any accusations, the Congress leaders held a press conference to deny that there was any conspiracy to murder A P Abdullakkutty, the local MP who had been expelled from the CPI(M). The case is still under investigation.

The organisational strength of the CPI(M) has enabled the LDF to confront the slander-mongers and criminals, as well as some of the adverse factors already noted above. The possibility of a non-congress, non-BJP government in which the Left would have a significant say enthused large sections of people. Today, even those who were making dire predictions at the start of the campaign have fallen silent. The LDF is poised for a great victory in the 2009 election to the Lok Sabha.